The San Antonio Spurs, initially considered a fringe playoff team, have closed within three games of the Oklahoma City Thunder in the West thanks to a six-game winning streak. This run included a key 116-106 victory over the Thunder, improving their head-to-head record to 4-1 this season.
The Spurs' opportunity to gain further ground is enhanced as OKC deals with an abdominal strain to reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The latest odds for the 2026 NBA Championship see the Thunder as clear favorites at +130, a significant shift from their +230 preseason odds.
The Denver Nuggets (+500), Cleveland Cavaliers (+1200), New York Knicks (+1200), and Boston Celtics (+1200) round out the top five contenders. Meanwhile, the Minnesota Timberwolves have seen their odds tumble from +1400 to +3500 after recent losses and a quiet trade deadline.
Oklahoma City's combination of MVP candidate Gilgeous-Alexander, star wing Jalen Williams, and versatile big man Chet Holmgren gives them the cleanest path to the title. Their elite defense, offensive efficiency, and organizational depth, supplemented by future draft capital and cap flexibility, make them the team to beat.