The Quest for March Madness Upsets
It is once again time to fill out your brackets, and the NCAA tournament simply wouldn't be the same without a few underdog stories. As we prepare for the chaos of March, it is important to balance enthusiasm for upsets with a realistic look at the current landscape of college basketball. The introduction of Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) deals has potentially shifted the balance of power, creating a more favorable environment for top-payroll schools. Last year, for instance, all four No. 1 seeds advanced to the Final Four, with only one double-digit seed surviving the opening weekend.
However, upsets are part of the tournament's DNA. Here are four teams that possess the potential to exceed expectations and linger longer in the bracket than their seedings might suggest.
Light Cinderella: St. John’s (No. 5 seed, East)
St. John’s finished the season on an impressive 19-1 run, though they remained a No. 5 seed due to the overall landscape of the Big East. With star player Zuby Ejiofor and legendary head coach Rick Pitino at the helm, the team plays with defensive intensity and excels at grabbing offensive rebounds.
While they face Northern Iowa in the opener, a second-round matchup against Kansas is a distinct possibility. The Jayhawks have struggled with consistency and injuries throughout the season. Given St. John’s momentum, they are well-positioned to reach the Sweet 16 and challenge top-tier opponents.
Medium Cinderella: UCLA (No. 7 seed, East)
After a rocky start, UCLA rebounded significantly under coach Mick Cronin, finishing the season strong before a narrow loss in the Big 10 tournament where they were missing key players. The Bruins are an experienced group with a low turnover rate and efficient shooting from behind the arc.
Assuming health, the Bruins are a dangerous matchup for any opponent. If they advance past UCF, a clash with UConn would likely be closer than the seeding suggests, making them a trendy pick to survive the first weekend.
Deeper Cinderella: VCU (No. 11 seed, South)
Virginia Commonwealth is no stranger to deep tournament runs. Entering this year’s bracket on a 16-1 surge, the Rams present a specific challenge to a North Carolina team that has struggled with perimeter defense. If VCU hits their shots—they are shooting 36.7% from deep—they have a legitimate path to pulling off an upset in the first round.
Dreaming Cinderella: Hofstra (No. 13 seed, Midwest)
In basketball, the ultimate equalizer is the three-point shot. Just as a “hot goalie” can carry a hockey team, a squad that catches fire from behind the arc can topple a powerhouse. Hofstra boasts three elite shooters in their starting lineup and faces an Alabama team that has not demonstrated elite perimeter defense.
«Think of what St. Peter’s dialed up in 2022, or Oakland University two years back — those schools took down favored opponents largely by shooting the lights out behind the arc.»
While Hofstra enters as a significant underdog, their ability to shoot from deep makes them a high-variance team capable of creating chaos in the Midwest bracket.