The 2026 Kentucky Derby Outlook
The 2026 Kentucky Derby is set for this Saturday, May 2, at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The race is scheduled to commence at 6:57 p.m. ET. Currently, the horse Renegade enters the field as the favorite with 4-1 odds, though it faces a statistical challenge after drawing the No. 1 post position.
In the previous year, Sovereignty secured the victory under jockey Junior Alvarado with closing odds of 7-1, resulting in a $17.96 payout for a $2 win bet.
The History of Long Shots and Favorites
While favorites often draw the most attention, the history of the Derby is punctuated by incredible upsets. According to historical records, the longest shot to ever claim victory was Donerail in 1913, who won at 91-1 odds. More recently, Rich Strike shocked the racing world in 2022 by winning at 80-1.
As bettors look toward the upcoming race, the question remains whether the betting favorite will hold their ground or if another underdog will defy the odds.
Complete List of Closing Odds (2000–2025)
To provide context for this year's event, here is the breakdown of closing odds for every Kentucky Derby winner dating back to the turn of the millennium:
2020s
- 2025: Sovereignty (7-1)
- 2024: Mystik Dan (18-1)
- 2023: Mage (15-1)
- 2022: Rich Strike (80-1)
- 2021: Mandaloun (26-1)
- 2020: Authentic (8-1)
2010s
- 2019: Country House (65-1)
- 2018: Justify (5-2)
- 2017: Always Dreaming (9-2)
- 2016: Nyquist (5-2)
- 2015: American Pharoah (5-2)
- 2014: California Chrome (5-2)
- 2013: Orb (5-1)
- 2012: I'll Have Another (15-1)
- 2011: Animal Kingdom (20-1)
- 2010: Super Saver (8-1)
2000s
- 2009: Mine That Bird (50-1)
- 2008: Big Brown (5-2)
- 2007: Street Sense (4-1)
- 2006: Barbaro (6-1)
- 2005: Giacomo (50-1)
- 2004: Smarty Jones (4-1)
- 2003: Funny Cide (12-1)
- 2002: War Emblem (20-1)
- 2001: Monarchos (10-1)
- 2000: Fusaichi Pegasus (2-1)