Betting Market Trends

As the NFL begins its training camp phase, sportsbooks are once again bracing for the potential financial impact of Joe Burrow's performance. The Cincinnati Bengals quarterback has emerged as the most-backed candidate in the MVP market by both total ticket volume and handle at BetMGM, creating a significant liability for the operator—a situation that mirrors the trends seen during the previous summer.


The Resilience of Betting Interest

Despite a 2025 campaign that was cut short by a serious turf toe injury, leading to nine missed games, bettors remain undeterred in their confidence. Last August, nearly 25% of the total handle in the MVP market was placed on Burrow. His appeal is largely driven by his impressive track record, including three seasons with over 4,000 passing yards and his connection with elite receivers Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.


However, analysts point to his durability concerns, noting that he has only completed 16 or more games in three of his six professional seasons. Regardless of these risks, the current market data remains strong:

  • Joe Burrow: Odds of +1,000; 13.9% of tickets and 13.3% of the handle.
  • Justin Herbert: Odds of +900; leads the market with 20% of the total money wagered.

Other MVP and Offensive Player Contenders

While Burrow and Herbert dominate the MVP conversation, other key players are attracting interest:

  • Josh Allen: Market favorite at +600, capturing 5.2% of bets.
  • Caleb Williams: Seeing significant interest at +1,200, with 10.5% of tickets.
  • Patrick Mahomes: Tied with Burrow at +1,000, though his recovery from a knee injury has kept his betting percentage lower than his career average.

In the Offensive Player of the Year market, Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs (+750) has captured substantial attention, securing 24% of the handle. Additionally, Philadelphia Eagles receiver DeVonta Smith (+6,600) has become a primary liability for sportsbooks in that specific category.


Defensive and Rookie Outlooks

The defensive player markets are showing distinct trends as well. Houston Texans edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. (+800) stands out as a major liability for bookmakers, drawing 16.1% of the total handle. In the rookie categories, betting activity is heavily focused on:

«Bettors are heavily favoring specific rookies to make an immediate impact, with Miami Dolphins linebacker Jacob Rodriguez (+2,000) leading the Defensive Rookie of the Year betting pool, capturing nearly 20% of the total handle.»

As training camps progress, oddsmakers will continue to monitor these fluctuations, as the high concentration of bets on specific players like Burrow and Rodriguez keeps the risk profile elevated for sportsbooks heading into the regular season.